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SCENARIO SUMMARY MATRIX  The Analysis Process 
In early fall of 1998, the four growth scenarios were turned over to the QGET Technical Committee for analysis. This was another tedious and time-consuming process.
Envision Utah had set a tight timeline for the analysis phase of the process to meet necessary deadlines for its media campaign in January 1999. By this time, land-use for each of the scenarios had already been configured by consultants. The analysis of water consumption went on independently from the other analysis areas because its model required land-use and lot-size data only. The other areas of modeling required a consecutive sequence. Transportation modeling took place first and was conducted by the two Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). Their job was to model how far residents would need to drive and the use of public transportation to generate projected Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) and transit ridership. This information was then turned over to experts at the Division of Air Quality where they used VMT and average speed data to determine the amount of vehicle emissions in relationship to population densities. Then they ran the data through very extensive computerized air quality models that analyze projected environmental and atmospheric conditions to determine total emissions, and, more importantly, their proximity to future population centers. Envision Utah was later told that the model used to generate the air quality data was more sophisticated than any used before anywhere. In fact, it took 30 hours of processing to complete the computer analysis of each pollutant for each scenario. Next, the Governor's Office of Planning & Budget used VMT and information about major infrastructure projects to generate an infrastructure cost model. A renowned engineering firm, PSOMAS, also lent its expertise to this stage of the process, helping to develop a model to determine the municipal and developer costs of local infrastructure. The majority of the analysis was completed and presented to area press and members of the Envision Utah Partnership on November 14, 1998. However, QGET felt more time was needed to complete some aspects of the transportation and air quality analysis. Therefore, information for these areas was released several weeks later in the form of a press release. Governor Leavitt previewed the data shortly before its public release. When he saw the difference in cost among scenarios, he seemed to have pivotal moment that reinforced his support for and participation with Envision Utah. |
